This is the Thursday afternoon NWS forecast discussion for the severe potential for SW Ohio on Friday, April 22nd, 2005. The words "rotating, shear and veering" in the same sentence get me hot and sassy this time of year.....well anytime of year akshully. The highlighted text.... compliments of yours truly.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT FROM NE KENTUCKY TO
SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVC SKIES BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OVER FA. KILN SHOWS PRECIP EXITING EASTERN FA.
NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MERGING IT WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL TAKE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI AND MOVE IT THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AN EVENING. THE STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FA WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING GOOD COVERAGE OF RW/TRW. FA WORKS INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AND WILL SEE ATMOSPHERE MIX OUT AM CLOUDS AND CREATE
MINIMAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. PROGGED
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED AND ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WIND SHEAR AROUND 15 M2/S2 AND RESPECTABLE VEERING WITH
HEIGHT. ANOTHER INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE NAM IS THAT IT SHOWS A
DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AN INVERTED TROF REFLECTED IN THE MSL. THIS WILL MOVE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE GET TOMORROW? THE MORE WE
(OH/IN) GETS THE STRONGER THE STORMS WILL BE. WILL FOLLOW
SPC WITH A STAIR STEP APPROACH. THEY HAVE UPPED SWRN 1/3 OF FA
INTO MODERATE RISK WITH THE 18Z UPDATE. FOR THE ZONES WILL ADD
STRONG WORDING FOR FRIDAY PM. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HWO. REMEMBER
IT WILL BE ALL ABOUT THE SUNSHINE/INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFT INTO EVE.
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT WITH COLD RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONTEMPLATED A FREEZE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING
CLOSE TO OR POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, DID NOT WANT TO ADD
ANY CONFUSION TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER ON FRIDAY. THUS WILL DEAL
WITH IT AFTER TOMORROWS EVENT.
TIPTON
